交易系统理念

交易系统理念 Note that we do not sell a trading system, but we do encourage the development of new ones. Any trading advice below is just one way of looking at things - our software allows you to use any rules you see fit. Systems in <APPLICATION_NAME> are organized into components called Trading Blox. These correspond with the types of decisions one makes as part of a complete trading system: 上面是交易系统工具软件的介绍。。。。，主要是介绍他们这个交易系统软件多么好。 下面交易系统的要素 What to buy or sell？买什么或卖什么 ? When to buy or sell？ 什么时候买或卖？ How to buy or sell？如何买或卖？How much to buy or sell? 买多少或卖多少?When to get out of a losing position？什么时候退出一个损失的头寸（止损）？ When to get out of a winning position ？什么时候止盈? What to buy or sell 买什么或卖什么 The first decision is what to buy and sell or essentially what markets to trade. If you trade too few markets you greatly reduce your chances of getting aboard a trend. At the same time, you don't want to trade markets that have too low a trading volume or that don't trend well. Another reason that a market might not be good to trade is that it is too heavily controlled by a few individuals or the locals in the pits. 第一个步骤是买什么或卖什么，也就是说在什么市场交易。如果你在非常有限的市场交易则可以明显的减少的失去跟随趋势的机会。同时你也不会想在交易量非常小和趋势不明显的市场交易。另外一个原因是在一个由少数寡头控制的市场进行交易也不会是一个好的交易。 When to buy or sell 交易的时机 One way to determine when to buy or sell is deciding when an up or down trend has begun. There are many ways to do this. Some methods rely on breakouts of highs and lows, some use moving average crossovers, and others attempt to find tops and bottoms using price formations. All these methods attempt to find the start of trends. Most systems that try to catch the start of a trend have low success rates. This is one of the reasons that following a system is often difficult. It is possible to trade for months or even a year or more without a good trend. After a long series of losses, most traders begin to question their system and start to hesitate when taking trades. 什么时候买或卖决定什么时候去买或卖的方法就是确定什么时候开始上升趋势或下降趋势。有很多方法可以用来确定趋势。一些方法是依靠高点或低点的突破，一些方法则是使用穿越移动平均线，另外一些则是通过价格的形态发现顶部或底部。所有的这些方法都是用来发现趋势的开端。大多数试图抓住趋势起点的系统成功率都比较低。这就是遵循系统进行交易比较困难的原因之一。交易几个月甚至一年都没有发现一个好的明显的趋势也是有可能的。经历一段比较长时间的失败后，大多数交易者都会对他们的系统产生怀疑并且在交易的时候变得犹豫不决。 How to buy or sell 如何交易（如何买或卖） Making the actual entry once a signal has been generated is an important tactical decision. This is especially true for larger accounts where entry and exit of positions has heavy cost because the orders are large enough to move the markets. Small incremental losses caused by poor entry technique can make the difference between winning and losing over the course of a year. 一旦信号产生，如何买卖是一个非常重要的技术步骤。这一点对于大资金帐户进出市场非常重要，因为它们的买卖金额太大了以致于引起市场的波动。经过常年交易，由于糟糕的入场技术造成的大量的小损失。（这句翻译不好） How much to buy or sell 买或卖多少（头寸管理） The decision about how much to buy or sell is absolutely fundamental and yet often glossed over or handled improperly by most traders. A common (but poor) way to decide how much to trade is to pick a fixed number of contracts per dollar amount and to trade that amount for each and every commodity. Some stock traders buy the same fixed dollar amount each time. 关于买卖多少的决定是绝对重要的，但是经常被大多数交易者忽略或者没有被妥善处理。一个普通的（但是非常糟糕）的方法是每次交易买数量的头寸，一些交易者每次买固定金额的头寸。 The two aspects of trading that revolve around how much to buy or sell are diversification and money management. 解决交易中买多少或卖多少的两个方面是多品种交易（交易多个品种）和资金管理 In the context of trend following, diversification is an attempt to spread risk across many instruments and increase the opportunity for profit by increasing the opportunities for catching trends. To properly diversify requires making similar if not identical bets on many different instruments. 在追随趋势中，多样化交易试图把风险分散许多交易同时通过增加捕捉到趋势的机会来增加利润。合适的多样化需要在很多不同的交易中下类似或同样的赌注 Money management is really about not betting so much that you run out of money before the good trends come. For this reason, how much to buy or sell is the single most important aspect of trading. Most risk far too much on each trade and greatly increase their chances of going bust even if they have an otherwise valid trading style. 资金管理实际上是关于不要下太多赌注，否则在好趋势到来之前已经输掉所有的钱。针对这个原因，买卖多少是交易最重要的一个方面。在每次交易冒太大的风险，实际上是增加暴仓的机会，甚至在有一个非常有效的交易风格的情况下。 When to get out of a losing position 何时止损 We've all heard the admonition: "Cut your losses, let your profits run". Yet it goes against the human need to be right. For most people, it is far easier to cling to the hope that a losing trade will turn around than it is to admit that the trade did not work and get out of a losing position. 我们都听过这样的格言：斩断亏损，让利润奔跑。但是它和人不愿意犯错的本性相抵触。对于大多数人来说，坚信一个已经有损失的交易会转向要比接受这样的交易已经没有意义需要止损要容易得多。 Getting out of a losing position is critical. A trader who doesn't cut his losses won't be successful in the long term. Almost all of the examples of trading that got out of control and jeopardized the health of the financial institution itself (Barings, Long-term Capital Management, and others) involve trades that were allowed to develop into large losses because they were not cut short when they were small losses. 止损是非常关键的。从长期来看，如果一个交易者不会止损就不会成功。几乎所有得失去控制和冒巨大的健康和财务风险的交易都可以造成巨大的损失，而其原因仅仅是在它们的损失很小的时候没有止损。 The most important thing about cutting your losses is to have the point where you will get out predefined before you enter a position. If the market moves to your stop loss price, you should get out every single time. Wavering from this method will eventually result in disaster. 关于止损的最重要的事情需要在你按某个价位建立头寸之前事先制定一个止损位。一旦市场移动到你的止损位，你要第一时间止损。如果在这个时候犹豫不决，最终会造成灾难。 When to get out of a winning position 何时止盈 "Let your profits run" is one of the hardest principles to follow. The reason why this is hard is that in order to let your profits run you must be willing to give back those profits. Prices never go straight up and therefore it is necessary to let the prices go against you at times. Early in a trend this can often mean watching decent profits of 10% to 30% fade to a small loss. In the middle of a trend it might mean watching a profit of 80% to 100% drop by 30% to 40%. The temptation to lighten the position to "lock in profits" can be very great. "Locking in profits" is different from "letting your profits run". For trend followers, the question of when to get out of a winning position becomes one of deciding when the up or down trend has ended. There are several ways of doing this. Some methods rely on breakouts of highs and lows, some use moving average crossovers, and others attempt to find tops and bottoms using price formations. All these methods attempt to find the end of trends. Summary A mechanical system is the best way to consistently make money while trading. If you know that your system makes money over the long run it is easier to take the signals and trade according to the system during periods of losses. If you are relying on your own judgment during trading you may find that you are fearful just when you should be courageous or courageous when you should be fearful. 一个机械系统是使交易稳定盈利的最好的方法。如果你知道你的系统从长期来看是盈利的，那么即便在系统连续遭受损失的时候你就会很容易坚持按照系统的信号进行交易。如果你按照自己的判断进行进行交易，你会发现你你非常恐惧，特别是在你应该勇敢的时候或者在应该恐惧的时候，你却非常勇敢。 If you have a mechanical trading system that works and you follow it consistently your trading will be consistent despite the inner emotional struggles that might come from a long series of losses, or a large profit. 总结：如果你有一个机械系统，而且你坚持按照系统进行交易，则可以轻易排除由于长时间亏损或者一次大的盈利二带来的非常剧烈内心情绪波动。（很明显，这种情绪波动是非常不利于交易的。作者注）